Thursday, May 10, 2012

The recession is Not Over, Only Delayed a Bit

Federal Reserve Interest Rates History - The recession is Not Over, Only Delayed a Bit
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The prevailing news from the stock market, and from growing chorus of economists and forecasters, is that the current retreat is, for all practical purposes, a thing of the past. A few annoyances, such as high unemployment and immense indebtedness, still remain, but these should take care of themselves as soon as economic increase resumes later this year.

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These assertions a worth examining.

The general consensus is that the accident was caused by an excess of liquidity, provided by the Us Federal Reserve. This led to an over-expansion of credit and a bubble in Us housing, with the attendant creation of involved mortgage-based securities, which investors and banks eagerly acquired.

When the bubble popped, the securities lost their market value, making many banks keeping them technically insolvent. Interbank lending stopped and the financial system went into collapse.

Almost simultaneously, rampant venture in oil prices, within this same financial system, drove the price of gasoline straight through the roof. This extended what was at first a financial sector qoute into a accident of the real economy.

Up to then nothing had kept U.S. Consumers from spending money they did not have. But gas at four dollars a gallon did. The buyer clamped down, sending the cheaper into a tail spin. Gross Domestic product tanked and unemployment shot up. buyer spending, which is the main driver of the U.S. Economy, remains in the pits.

So how come the retreat has been declared over?

It is because it is over, at least temporarily, on Wall Street.

The response of the U.S. Government to the accident has been to rescue the financial system from its mistakes with immense injections of taxpayer money, and some smoke and mirrors thrown in.

First the toxic asset qoute was dealt with by changing accounting rules. Such assets no longer have to be priced at their market worth, but at whatever their holders claim the value to be. This immediately improved major bank balance sheets.

Second, the Federal hold has been providing banks with unlimited amounts of money at a zero interest rate, important to easy and expansive profits. The Fed also provides a whole of supplementary guarantees, and has promised to keep this up for a long time, so trust is back and the stock market has rallied.

Recession over!

There is only one hitch. All of the above is strictly financial. There has been no venture whatever, other than a few corporate bail-outs, in the real economy. Jane and Joe are still scrambling to pay their mortgage and other bills while seeing for a job.

Wall road got trillions in tax money. The rest of the country got an postponement in unemployment insurance.

In the end, it does not matter who gets the money, as long as it is well spent. But it is doubtful this is the case.

The current course of inordinate liquidity only repeats what was done earlier in this decade to fix the old recession: drown the financial system in cheap cash. But this time it is done with much greater intensity and on a coordinated global scale. In all likelihood the end result will be a accident even more severe than even the present one.

A wholesale convert of priorities is urgently needed. Without it the U.S. Financial sector is in danger of becoming the modern American equivalent of the 18th century French court at Versailles: an costly tax-funded playpen for a small, wealthy and influential minority, whose activities are less and less relevant to the country at large.

The Versailles courtiers idea themselves to be indispensable. History showed they were not. In the same vein it is probable that the U.S. Financial sector, in its current form, is far less considerable to the cheaper than it is made out to be.

Unless reform is undertaken swiftly and on an all-encompassing scale, we might find this to be true in the not too distant future. Let us hope we do not find out the hard way.

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